🚀 Moon Crash Incoming! 💥 August 5th

THE IDENTIFIED OBJECT
The impending impact of the Falcon 9 rocket’s upper stage, designated 2025-010D, is a significant event being closely monitored by astronomers worldwide. Initial calculations, spearheaded by Bill Gray and his Project Pluto software, predicted a strike on August 5th at 2:44 am ET (06:44 UTC) near the Einstein Crater on the Moon’s near side. This object, traveling at an astonishing 2.43 kilometers per second (5,400 mph), was tracked meticulously since its separation from the launch vehicle in early 2025, following the trajectories of the Firefly’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Hakuto-R lunar landers. The upper stage itself had been orbiting Earth, albeit at a higher altitude, and was observed through numerous telescope passes – accumulating a total of 1053 observations as of February 26, 2026. The stage’s dimensions – 13.8 meters (45 feet) tall and 3.7 meters (12 feet) in diameter – were well-documented, and its intact arrival on the lunar surface was anticipated due to the Moon’s lack of atmosphere.

THE TRACKING AND INITIAL ASSESSMENT
Bill Gray’s team, along with other astronomers, maintained high confidence that the object was indeed the Falcon 9 upper stage. The tracking data, gathered from various observatories, provided a detailed record of the stage’s movements around Earth and its increasingly close approaches to the Moon. This consistent observation was crucial in confirming the object’s origin and trajectory. Despite the potential for a visible impact from Earth, Gray noted that the impact was likely too faint for observation with ground-based telescopes, primarily due to the stage’s distance and brightness. The stage’s speed, roughly seven times the speed of sound, was expected to create a small crater upon impact, but the overall risk to lunar operations was considered minimal. The successful landing of the Blue Ghost lander on the Moon provided a key reference point for tracking the upper stage, further solidifying the identification.

A SHIFTING UNDERSTANDING AND FUTURE OPERATIONS
Subsequent analysis dramatically altered the understanding of the object’s identity. It was determined that the stage was, in fact, an upper stage from the Chinese Chang’e 5-T1 mission, a revelation that significantly changed the context of the event. Despite this correction, the ongoing tracking of the stage continued, highlighting the sophisticated capabilities of near-Earth object monitoring. Looking ahead, the planned increase in lunar launch cadence – potentially a tenfold increase – underscores the growing ambition to establish permanent human outposts on the Moon. This expansion necessitates a greater volume of launches, including the delivery of rovers, supplies, habitats, and communications equipment. To mitigate potential risks, experts advocate for a standardized practice of placing spent rocket stages into “disposal” orbits around the Sun, ensuring they will never pose a threat to future lunar operations or Earth.