OpenAI, Anthropic, & SpaceX: The Tech IPO Money Train 🚀💰

THE PRIVATE MARKET LANDSCAPE AND EXPERT INSIGHT
Glen Anderson, President of Rainmaker Securities, has deep experience brokering private company shares since 2010, witnessing the shift from a niche market to one with thousands of institutional investors. Through his focus on private securities and facilitating transactions in approximately 1,000 stocks, Anderson offers a unique perspective on the current secondary market, identifying Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX as the three defining characters in a complex, rapidly evolving narrative.

ANTHROPIC'S HIGH DEMAND AND MARKET STRENGTH
Demand for Anthropic shares has become exceptionally strong, leading Anderson to note that it is currently the hardest stock to source in the secondary marketplace because there are few sellers. This intense demand is partly attributed to the company's public standoff with the Department of Defense, which investors have framed as a heroic challenge to big government, significantly amplifying the company's story and differentiation from its competitors.

OPENAI'S VALUATION AND TRADING CHALLENGES
Despite institutional investors maintaining interest in both major AI players, the excitement surrounding OpenAI is notably less vibrant compared to Anthropic. While the secondary market is currently valuing OpenAI shares at a $765 billion discount to its most recent $852 billion primary valuation, the company has been cautious about secondary trading, establishing authorized channels through banks to counter high-fee broker models.

THE UNIQUE TRAJECTORY OF SPACEX
SpaceX stands apart from the other private market giants because it avoided the punishing 60% to 70% corrections that hit most private company shares between 2022 and 2024. Anderson credits the company's management with its consistent upward trajectory, attributing this success to disciplined pricing and the refusal to "get too greedy" during funding rounds, a conservative approach that has yielded enormous gains for earlier investors.

THE IMMINENT IPO RACE AND LIQUIDITY DYNAMICS
SpaceX has dramatically changed the secondary market dynamics by filing confidentially for an initial public offering (IPO), setting the stage for a potential debut of $50 billion to $75 billion. This move means that the first mover gets to the liquidity trough first, a dynamic that plays out in every sector. Anderson warns that while both Anthropic and OpenAI are also exploring public offerings, following a company like SpaceX will put them at a disadvantage, as the initial offering will soak up a substantial amount of available capital.

FINANCIAL ACCESS AND INVESTMENT MECHANICS
The current market structure shows varying access methods: while Goldman Sachs charges its customary carry (often 15% to 20% of profits) for clients seeking Anthropic exposure, major banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have, at least for now, begun offering OpenAI shares to high-net-worth clients without charging these carry fees. Furthermore, the timing of an IPO is critical; attempting to time it too early risks testing market receptivity, while waiting for others can mean facing less capital and greater scrutiny.